May 17-AASU Economist Says Recession in Coastal Empire May Officially Be Over

Last Updated on Saturday, 15 May 2010 13:48 Saturday, 15 May 2010 13:44

by Ray Steele, SBJ Editor

There is no doubt the economy is still slow, but the recession in the Coastal Empire and Lowcountry may have officially ended according to one local economist. Dr. Michael Toma of Armstrong Atlantic State University's Center for Regional Analysis says the regional economy grew by an annual rate of 1.5 percent during the first quarter of 2010.

“When we look back in three to six months from now, it is quite possible that the modest growth experienced in the first quarter will mark the end of the recession in the Savannah metro area,” said Toma in the latest Economic Monitor, published each quarter by the Center.

The Coastal Empire leading economic index continued its upward trajectory for the third consecutive quarter, even though the rate of gain was reduced in comparison to the previous two cycles. Mixed signals from housing and the labor markets contributed the slower rate of growth. The forecasting index continues to indicate that the regional economy will experience growth during the second half of the year.

The Coastal Empire coincident economic index also increased slightly to146.2 from 145.8 (revised) with seasonally adjusted employment, electricity sales and port activity providing the most lift to the index. Consumer confidence and spending, however, continued to weigh down the index.

“It is expected that the modest growth registered in the current quarter will strengthen during the second quarter and additional growth will continue in the latter half of 2010,” said Toma.

The Economic Monitor presents quarterly economic trends and short-term economic forecasts for Savannah’s Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The quarterly report measures the heartbeat of the local economy, based on the analysis of economic data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, the City of Savannah, Georgia Power and the three counties in the MSA -- Chatham, Bryan and Effingham. The latest Economic Monitor can be downloaded at http://www.econ.armstrong.edu/cra/monitor.htm.